Lost Sheep, Build Thread.

[TacoXpo]

They since edited the article after the last 2020 crash, dang I'm gonna have start saving the print pdf versions.

Redirect Notice

www.google.com

*Something to note, the S&P 500 hasn't had a double digit pull back in almost 2 years, and history repeats itself. The marginal debt is twice a much now, then it was back in March of 2020, Feds want to increase interest rates, let's see how the meeting goes tomorrow and Wednesday without out any policy changes, that's scheduled to occur in March.

I just spent the evening with a friend who retired and took a lump sum. I a few years he built he portfolio to over 5mil. Well this week he is down to a mil. Sad. I am one of his three friends. One of them moved to Idaho. His other friend is moving to MT. I know he will be okay but he is beating himself up quite hard.

About 5 years ago he tried to hang himself.

I am confident I can help him.

Money is nice but we do need to have faith and now we are provided everything we need. His wife is surprisingly understanding.

 

[Taco Loco]

Biden answers inflation query by calling Fox reporter SOB

Biden caught on hot mic swearing at Fox News reporter

President Joe Biden has called a Fox News reporter a vulgarity after the reporter asked him a question about inflation

abcnews.go.com

"Doocy called out, “Do you think inflation is a political liability ahead of the midterms?”

Biden responded with sarcasm, “It's a great asset — more inflation." Then he shook his head and added, “What a stupid son of a bitch.”

The president's comments were captured on video and by the microphone in front of him. Doocy laughed it off in a subsequent appearance on his network, joking, "Nobody has fact-checked him yet and said it’s not true.”

Doocy told Fox News’ Sean Hannity that Biden called him later to the clear the air. Doocy said Biden told him, “It’s nothing personal, pal.”

The White House did not immediately responded to a request for comment."

 

[Taco Loco]

@TacoXpo
T is down enough if you were to purchase it at $25.75 or below, that's low enough to capture a 8% yearly divided at $2.08 a share, great long term purchase along with reinvested divided into T. Sometimes slow steady wins a big race, ask Warren.

 

[CowboyTaco]

T announced last year that they were going to cut the dividend in half and the stock tanked from $30-32/share all the way down to around $22. My current cost basis is $29.65 and I'm hesitant to put any more into it as they have a LOT of debt and several failed ventures (mergers, buying/selling assets). As far as I can tell, they haven't actually cut the dividend yet. Not sure why they haven't, as they damage to stock price was done by the announcement. They've waited long enough that I suspect it will drop again as there is a massive sell off when they actually do cut the dividend.

It probably will be solid long term, and even a 4%+ return is good. But I have a hard time giving them any more money.

 

[CowboyTaco]

Also, how did you calculate the $25.75 price? I listened to the Invested audiobook, but the resources with all their formulas were not included. I've considered purchasing the book as I think it would be a good value to have.

That said, how is $25.75 your purchase price?

 

[TacoXpo]

@TacoXpo
T is down enough if you were to purchase it at $25.75 or below, that's low enough to capture a 8% yearly divided at $2.08 a share, great long term purchase along with reinvested divided into T. Sometimes slow steady wins a big race, ask Warren.

You and I see similar things. I have been leaning into T for some Qualified Dividends for the tax advantage.

 

[Taco Loco]

Also, how did you calculate the $25.75 price? I listened to the Invested audiobook, but the resources with all their formulas were not included. I've considered purchasing the book as I think it would be a good value to have.

That said, how is $25.75 your purchase price?

Your over thinking this, what 8% of $25.75? and what's yearly divided...
I have 4k share buy order in for 24.72

T maybe has mentioned cutting the dividend, but has never done it in its history.

All telecommunications and tech stocks have mass debts, telecommunications stocks have a guaranteed income, no one is getting rid of their cell phones, its a drug that everyone is addicted too.

 

[Taco Loco]

T announced last year that they were going to cut the dividend in half and the stock tanked from $30-32/share all the way down to around $22. My current cost basis is $29.65 and I'm hesitant to put any more into it as they have a LOT of debt and several failed ventures (mergers, buying/selling assets). As far as I can tell, they haven't actually cut the dividend yet. Not sure why they haven't, as they damage to stock price was done by the announcement. They've waited long enough that I suspect it will drop again as there is a massive sell off when they actually do cut the dividend.

It probably will be solid long term, and even a 4%+ return is good. But I have a hard time giving them any more money.

Young folks/investors always tend have short term focus on what's happening now. A long term investor on dividend stock does not pay attention to share price! Again, A long term investor on dividend stock does not pay attention to share price! please focus on that.
The long term investor wants that investment to buy more shares, equals more dividends, like you mentioned the stock decreased $25, well guess what with a reinvestment into the stock, he just purchased more shares at that lower price each quater than he would not normally get if the price was say at $32
A stock throwing a 8% dividend at that price, in less than 10 years in a semi normal market, expect a double of your initial investment.

Now with that said, I'm a long investor on about 30% of my portfolio, but if I can pick a stock thats cheap with a current 8% or 9%+ I'm on it like a duck on June bugs sir.

 

[Taco Loco]

T announced last year that they were going to cut the dividend in half and the stock tanked from $30-32/share all the way down to around $22. My current cost basis is $29.65 and I'm hesitant to put any more into it as they have a LOT of debt and several failed ventures (mergers, buying/selling assets). As far as I can tell, they haven't actually cut the dividend yet. Not sure why they haven't, as they damage to stock price was done by the announcement. They've waited long enough that I suspect it will drop again as there is a massive sell off when they actually do cut the dividend.

It probably will be solid long term, and even a 4%+ return is good. But I have a hard time giving them any more money.

Also, depending on what type of brokerage account and/or type of account you have, 401k, 403, Roth, TOD etc you buy the dividend stocks, then dividends are paid and some of the accounts force the dividend back into cash or a money market account, you don't want that.

It's best to have that account setup to automatically invest the dividend back into the stock and stay within the account without trigger a tax form every year.

 

[TacoXpo]

I just had a brain fart. My friend who's gone upside down. I'm not going to ask him but I can only imagine the capital gains he is liable for from his gains last year.

Thanks again for your thread.

 

[CowboyTaco]

My target dividend is around 2-4% give or take. Less or greater than by a little isn't a big deal. Many stocks, telecom included, will bait investors with a high dividend to generate revenue. Who cares if the dividend is good if the value/price of the stock is tanking.

My general rules:
Does the graph generally trend upward?
Does the company pay a dividend?
Do I know the company and have a reasonable expectation that I can 'understand' the business?
Do I "feel good" about the company long term?

If the answer to any of those questions is no, I have to evaluate how badly I want the stock. I do own stocks that fall outside of those perimeters, but not many. Most of the stocks that I've regretted purchasing have fallen outside of those parameters.

As it pertains to T specifically, I was ok with them staying stagnant around the $30 mark because of the dividend. It went below $30 and I would buy. It went above $30 and I would hold. I think the highest I ever saw it get was around $36, but I haven't looked at a chart to see if that is accurate. I'm bearish on them because of their performance after announcing the reduction in dividend. Kind of wish that exec hadn't said a thing since they didn't cut it.

 

[Taco Loco]

I just had a brain fart. My friend who's gone upside down. I'm not going to ask him but I can only imagine the capital gains he is liable for from his gains last year.

Thanks again for your thread.

Not good.


I haven't started my schedule F yet, might hire cpa for this to get me started and next year I'll be good on my own.

My target dividend is around 2-4% give or take. Less or greater than by a little isn't a big deal. Many stocks, telecom included, will bait investors with a high dividend to generate revenue. Who cares if the dividend is good if the value/price of the stock is tanking.

My general rules:
Does the graph generally trend upward?
Does the company pay a dividend?
Do I know the company and have a reasonable expectation that I can 'understand' the business?
Do I "feel good" about the company long term?

If the answer to any of those questions is no, I have to evaluate how badly I want the stock. I do own stocks that fall outside of those perimeters, but not many. Most of the stocks that I've regretted purchasing have fallen outside of those parameters.

As it pertains to T specifically, I was ok with them staying stagnant around the $30 mark because of the dividend. It went below $30 and I would buy. It went above $30 and I would hold. I think the highest I ever saw it get was around $36, but I haven't looked at a chart to see if that is accurate. I'm bearish on them because of their performance after announcing the reduction in dividend. Kind of wish that exec hadn't said a thing since they didn't cut it.

Pissing in the wind with anything 2%, that doesn't even cover current inflation rate, shit I'd buy precious metals or the ETF funds before I do that nonsense.

Ok Ive heard enough about T, sell the stupid stock and be done with it.

 

[CowboyTaco]

No. I'm holding onto it.

You are right that 2% doesn't keep up with current inflation. IIRC annual inflation averages about 3% per year. But that's why I care about the stock price. I want it to appreciate in value higher than the 3% inflation rate. The 2% dividend is just bonus.

If you don't care about stock price, why wait for it to drop to $24.72? Why not just execute that $4k buy order at market price?

 

[Taco Loco]

No. I'm holding onto it.

You are right that 2% doesn't keep up with current inflation. IIRC annual inflation averages about 3% per year. But that's why I care about the stock price. I want it to appreciate in value higher than the 3% inflation rate. The 2% dividend is just bonus.

If you don't care about stock price, why wait for it to drop to $24.72? Why not just execute that $4k buy order at market price?

Last year inflation 7%, were approaching 8% now(40 year high), Feds in meetings today and tomorrow, intrest rare increase in March, 75% chance likely they will increase it by min .25%, it's one of the main/only ways to slow inflation rate.

Great question, if I tie up a 100K for a min 10 years I want the potential to be closer to 9% reason for $24.72 buy order(its a higher risk, but also has a much higher reward potiential). The reson being because it needs to be closer to the avg S&P 500 average, or I can just simpky buy some S&P index funds that mirror to make the 9% average.

 

[CowboyTaco]

Your buy order should hit today.

 

[Taco Loco]

Your buy order should hit today.

Oh damn, good thing I canceled the order, been on the mower. With this amount of loss/volume, the dividend cut is most likely gonna happen at the end of this quarter.

 

[TacoXpo]

I have a very good friend that is a financial advisor. She called me saying that most of the clients of hers did better with this downturn and during the last year! She was bummed. I told her she should be proud!

 

[Taco Loco]

What's your favorite defense stock? if war breaks out between Russia and the Ukraine? Northrup Grunman? Lockheed Martin? General Dynamics? Something else?

Oil will skyrocket as well, since yall voted for Biden, oil imports to the US has increased and pipeline projects have been canceled.

And now this hits us at our own backdoor. Court Cancels Biden Administration's 'Carbon Bomb' Oil Lease Sale

 

[CowboyTaco]

I've had Lockheed in the past and liked them for the most part. I don't remember why I dropped them, but I suspected they were going to have a sharp decrease in stock price and I didn't want to lose the profits that I had earned over the years. All the ones you mentioned are solid companies, but LM is the only one that I've researched.

 

[Taco Loco]

Will The Stock Market’s January Barometer Hold Up In 2022?

Some believe that January is a good predictor for the rest of the year in the stock market. Is it?

www.forbes.com